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Disclaimer: everything written in this article are of personal opinion, and should never be taken as financial advice.

I’m writing these market outlook posts periodically to put my thoughts to paper and to hold myself liable for my investment theses and decisions, so hopefully going forward this is something that’s good for both myself and you, the reader.

In my previous market outlook post in May, I wrote that I was bearish on the stock market and bullish on gold and bitcoin. Well, it seems that I was only 50% correct in my predictions.

Thanks to the Fed and its humongous money printing machine, the stock market has become completely detached from the real economy over the past couple of months. Despite companies mostly having been in shutdown mode with no business, their stocks continued to skyrocket to new heights thanks to liquidity injections and buy-back schemes. I was wrong to doubt the Fed and its money printing — lesson in there, “Don’t Fight the Fed.” …


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I recently started doing a podcast called Millennials in China with a friend. Having gone through the entire process of setting up the podcast, I thought it would be valuable to share it here on my blog.

You should consider the following things when starting a podcast:


By Hope Freiheit on The Capital

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As the world now registers over 1 million tested and confirmed COVID-19 cases, life continues to stall in unprecedented ways. Lockdowns and stay home orders continue to be administered in the majority of the world’s developed countries, and storefront/transportation businesses such as restaurants, bars, event venues, airlines, etc. continue to count down their days to bankruptcy (or bailout, in airlines’ case).

Coronavirus has unleashed a black swan event on our world unlike anything in recent decades, and totally unprecedented in the post-Cold War modern era. …


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As we watch the world sink into a sea of COVID-19 induced chaos, the global financial markets are feeling the panic. The $SPX (SP500 Index) dropped by 37% in 34 days — the fastest and most violent sell-off in US stock market history, erasing all the gains dating back to August 2016 (yes, that’s nearly 4 years of stock market gains).

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To combat the financial destruction, the US federal government and central bank have been throwing all means of “last resort” measures at the wall, hoping one of them will stick and steady the ship. On March 15th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates from an already low 1.25% to near-zero to stimulate borrowing, but the stock market did not respond. …


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As days go by and the amount of worldwide confirmed COVID-19 cases piles up ( as I predicted a few weeks ago), it is looking more and more likely that this coronavirus pandemic may be the black swan event that sets off a global recession — a recession that may even cascade into a full blown fiat currency crisis.

2 months ago, China implemented a large scale lockdown, restricted transport and asked citizens to stay home. The West did not yet feel the gravity of the situation and were instead making memes or simply casting skepticism over reported data and social media footages. The severity of the situation was clear based on the measures China undertook, with Spring Festival extended and economic production not resumed until March — non-essential businesses and manufacturing have just started to return to normal since 1–2 weeks ago. …


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A young woman wearing a face mask walks along a quiet street in Shanghai.

I’ve been in China for the past while, and can say that I’ve seen the coronavirus outbreak from the inside (albeit from Shanghai and not from ground zero, thankfully). Here are my observations and my take on the situation.

At the time of writing, it has been exactly one month since the 2020 Chinese New Year (Spring Festival) holiday — the annual mass migration (largest in the world) of people from major cities back to their hometowns. The outbreak of the coronavirus (now called “COVID-19”) was only made public about one week prior to the Spring Festival holiday. …


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Disclaimer: The below content is purely personal opinion formed as a result of my personal learnings and experiences, and should not be construed as financial nor business advice.

Markets go in cycles. As we’ve survived through the bear market of 2018 and transitioned to a new bull market now in 2019, I am starting to see newcomers being attracted to cryptocurrency once again. Since I am seeing new “retail investors” come into the space (including people I know personally), I think it’s time for me to sound the warning sirens to these newcomers. …


crypto regulation
crypto regulation

Recently, a big talking point within the cryptosphere has been “ Libra “, the blockchain-based digital cash system proposed by Facebook and administered by the “Libra Association” — a consortium of giant global corporations including the likes of PayPal and Vodafone.

Though disguised as a “cryptocurrency”, Libra is actually much more akin to a corporate-backed electronic money circuit, not dissimilar to WeChat Pay or AliPay, which are ubiquitous for day-to-day payments in China.

If you’ve done a good amount of learning on bitcoin and distributed ledger technology (“blockchain”), you should well know that the main advantage of having a “blockchain” is to have a decentralized, transparent, and tamper-resistant ledger that is not easily controlled or manipulated by any one central party. …


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It is incredible how some visionaries who lived among us were able to predict things decades in advance — the famed British author George Orwell was one such visionary. In his literary classic “1984” (which was written in 1949, by the way!), he painted the picture of a total surveillance society under “Big Brother” where humans live and function like sheeple and every person’s every action or word would have consequences.

Lo and behold, enter real life in 2019, and we are looking more and more likely to descend into an Orwellian future.

The internet, without doubt the greatest human invention of the modern era, changed human life as we knew it. The internet made information mobile, which led to unlimited possibilities. It granted new ideas, sights, sounds, concepts, skills, and opportunities to everyone across the planet, and accumulated significant amounts of human identification and behavioural data in the process. …


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Is bitcoin like the Ford Model T?

I came across an article on Coindesk recently, titled, “Bitcoin Will Still Bite the Dust“. The author is Kevin Dowd, a Professor of Finance and Economics in the Business School at Durham University, and the co-author of the 2015 paper “Bitcoin Will Bite the Dust.”

The author makes a couple of interesting but perhaps overly naive points in support of his argument that bitcoin will eventually go to $0, while also claiming that he has yet to hear “a single intelligent challenge to this argument from the bitcoin community.” Instead, he claims that “the typical response has been personal abuse.”

The bitcoin community is just like any other online (or even offline) community — with its quality of members ranging from absolute genius to totally lacking in logic and decency. …

About

Hope Freiheit

| Bitcoin | Science | History | Games | thesovereignmillennial.com

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